If you're wondering why your grocery receipt keeps getting longer without your cart getting fuller, the answer isn't one thing — it's two things hitting at the same time, with a third on the way.

A Concord Monitor investigation published Friday tracked specific product prices across New England grocery chains over the past year and found staggering increases: a 12-ounce bag of Nature's Promise frozen tilapia at Hannaford jumped 46.74%, from $5.99 to $8.79. Cavendish frozen hash brown patties — a product of Canada — climbed 32.58% at Market Basket, from $2.64 to $3.50. Store-brand ground pork from Canada rose 33.44%, from $2.99 to $3.99 per pound.

Those are tariff-driven numbers. But they're only half the story.

The War Premium

The Iran-Hormuz conflict, now in its eighth week, has layered a fuel and fertilizer cost surge on top of already elevated tariff-driven prices. Diesel fuel — critical at every stage of the food supply chain from farm to shelf — has been well above $5 a gallon this month, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data.

The math isn't abstract. Fossil fuels used to produce oil, diesel, and fertilizer account for between 15% and 30% of produce costs. As NPR affiliates reported, even a 30% increase in fuel prices translates to a 1-2% bump in produce — a number that compounds across thousands of SKUs and millions of shopping trips.

Fortune documented the layered impact in early April: the war isn't just affecting imports that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. It's raising the baseline cost of moving food domestically, growing food with petroleum-derived fertilizers, and packaging food in plastic containers made from fossil fuel byproducts.

The Numbers Tell a Double Story

Here's where it gets uncomfortable. The tariff story and the war story aren't additive in the way you might expect — they're multiplicative. Consider the categories getting hit:

Imported proteins are absorbing tariff increases directly. The tilapia and Canadian pork numbers are pure trade policy. But beef and veal were already 15% higher in January 2026 than a year earlier, before the Hormuz blockade pushed transportation costs higher still.

Produce from Mexico has been partially shielded by exemptions and a more conciliatory trade stance from Mexican leaders, but tomatoes still spiked 22% year-over-year, driven by a 17% tariff on Mexican imports, per 24/7 Wall Street.

European specialty goods face the steepest cliff. Italian pasta exporters are staring down a potential 91.74% anti-dumping duty on top of existing 15% base tariffs on EU agri-food imports. Olive oil, wine, and coffee from the EU are all in the crosshairs.

The Worst Hasn't Hit Yet

The USDA now projects food-at-home prices will rise 3.1% in 2026 — nearly double its projection at the start of the year. Morningstar goes further, estimating non-durable goods — food, apparel, paper products, and cleaning supplies — will rise 5.6%, adding roughly $540 per year to a household spending $800 a month on groceries.

But here's the detail that should concern grocery executives and consumers alike: food manufacturers typically work through existing inventory and supply contracts before repricing, a process that takes 12 to 18 months. That means the tariffs imposed in early 2025 are only now showing up at shelf level. The companies haven't even begun to fully pass through the costs of the April 2026 pharmaceutical and metals tariffs — or the sustained fuel price increases from the war.

CPG brands and grocery retailers are expected to begin raising prices in earnest in the middle of 2026. The squeeze you're feeling now? It's the preview.