The largest trade reversal in American retail history officially kicked off on Monday — and immediately hit a wall.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection launched the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries system, known as CAPE, at 8 a.m. EST on April 21. The portal is the government's mechanism for processing refunds on tariffs imposed under President Trump's emergency trade authority, which the Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional in February. Companies that paid more than $166 billion in now-illegal duties can finally file to get their money back.
The numbers are staggering. According to Citi's analysis, Walmart tops the list at $10.2 billion. Target is owed $2.2 billion. Nike could collect $1 billion. Kohl's is due $550 million, Gap $400 million, and Macy's $320 million. For some of these companies, the refunds represent a significant chunk of their annual operating profit.
Day One Was Rough
The portal's first day was anything but smooth. CBS News reported that multiple businesses encountered error messages, including "The system is currently experiencing high volume, please try again later." Rick Woldenberg, CEO of educational toy maker Learning Resources, told CBS he couldn't even submit a claim. Others reported "duplicate tax ID" errors that locked them out entirely.
Fortune noted that small businesses may already be at a structural disadvantage. The system requires importers to file using CSV files through CBP's web-based ACE Secure Data Portal — a tool that major retailers and their customs brokers are intimately familiar with, but that smaller importers may have never used. The Main Street Alliance, a network of small business owners, said its members experienced "major issues" on day one.
Don't Expect Consumer Relief
Even if the refunds eventually flow, consumers shouldn't expect lower prices at the register. A CNBC survey of 25 CFOs found that while 12 of 25 plan to apply for refunds, not a single one said they intend to directly pass the money to customers.
That tracks with the data. A Harvard Business School Pricing Lab analysis found that retail tariff pass-through contributed about 0.76 percentage points to the Consumer Price Index by October 2025. American consumers paid an estimated $231 billion in total tariff costs between February 2025 and January 2026 — roughly $1,745 per household, according to the Joint Economic Committee.
The retailers raised prices to cover the tariffs. Now they get the tariff money back. The prices, apparently, stay where they are.
The Clock Is Already Ticking
CBP says approved refunds should arrive within 60 to 90 days — but trade lawyers are skeptical. Norton Rose Fulbright cautioned that the initial phase only covers estimated tariffs and those finalized within the past 80 days, meaning many older claims will have to wait.
And there's a bigger shadow over the whole process. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled that tariffs could be reimposed at previous levels by July through Section 301 trade studies — meaning the same retailers filing for refunds today could be paying new duties in a matter of weeks.
For the retail industry, it's a familiar loop: absorb the cost, pass it to the consumer, fight for the refund, brace for the next round. The portal may be open, but the trade war is far from settled.