The front-loading strategy that defined retail supply chains in 2025 worked — until it didn't. A comprehensive new survey from STG Logistics, covering 500 decision-makers responsible for U.S. import strategy, paints a stark picture of an industry that went all-in on preemptive stockpiling and is now dealing with the consequences.

The headline number: 85.6% of beneficial cargo owners and shippers front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff implementation in an effort to avoid rising costs. U.S. imports surged more than 50% in Q1 2025 as firms scrambled to get goods into the country before new duties took effect.

That inventory buffer is now largely depleted. And with the Section 122 bridge tariff set to expire July 24 with no clear replacement, as we reported yesterday, retailers are stuck in a difficult position: reorder at current tariff rates that may change, or hold off and risk stockouts heading into the back half of the year.

The Volume Cliff

Import volume at the nation's major container ports is expected to see significant year-over-year declines during the first half of 2026, according to the National Retail Federation. The math is straightforward: when everyone pulls demand forward, the subsequent period sees a corresponding drop. For ports like Long Beach and Savannah, the contrast between 2025's surge and 2026's lull is dramatic.

For retailers, this creates a paradox. Consumer-facing companies are projecting a combined $15 billion financial impact from tariff disruptions in 2026, according to FreightWaves. Import prices rose 1.3% in February — the largest monthly increase since March 2022 — and pipeline inflation suggests more price pressure ahead. But with inventories running lean and import volumes down, the traditional response of buying ahead is no longer available.

Diversification: Everyone Wants It, Few Have Achieved It

The STG survey found that more than 40% of organizations plan to further diversify sourcing in 2026. But the reality on the ground is messier than the strategy decks suggest. Companies that attempted to shift production away from China in 2025 reported new challenges around supplier reliability, regulatory compliance, and logistics coordination in unfamiliar markets.

Bonded storage and Foreign Trade Zones proved useful — over 40% of respondents used these tools in 2025 — and 31.2% secured more flexible contract terms with shorter durations and variable rates.

Perhaps the most telling statistic: over half of respondents said they would have diversified their supply chains earlier if they could revisit their 2025 strategy. Hindsight is easy, but the message is clear — the companies that started moving production and sourcing before the tariff hammer fell are in markedly better shape than those still scrambling.

The Strait of Hormuz Factor

Compounding the tariff picture are ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz tied to the Middle East conflict. Some carriers continue diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding transit time and cost. Three-quarters of retail supply chain leaders say tariff turbulence is now redefining their 2026 strategies, prompting a wider pivot toward regionalization and nearshoring.

What This Means for Retailers

The supply chain story in 2026 isn't about a single disruption. It's about the cumulative weight of multiple disruptions happening simultaneously: tariff uncertainty, geopolitical instability, a consumer sentiment index in freefall, and a logistics network still adjusting to the whiplash of 2025's front-loading binge.

For retail executives planning assortments and pricing for the back half of the year, the message from this survey is uncomfortable: the tools that worked last year — stockpiling, promotional pricing to move excess inventory, short-term carrier contracts — have largely been used up. What's left is the harder work of genuine supply chain transformation, and the clock is ticking.